Polls Show Florida Abortion Amendment Narrowly Falling Short of Passage

Two polls show a proposed abortion amendment in Florida falling short of the 60 percent support needed for passage. 

A USA Today/Suffolk/WSVN-TV poll showed 58 percent of 500 likely Florida voters support Amendment 4, which would enshrine the right to abortion throughout pregnancy into the state constitution. The measure would bar the state from restricting abortion before viability (approximately 24 weeks) or later in pregnancy “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” A little more than a third (35 percent) of poll respondents said they would vote against the amendment. 

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The USA Today poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error, meaning it is possible that as many as 62 percent or as few as 54 percent would vote for the abortion amendment.

“Florida voters may support an abortion amendment, but polling experts say the ballot initiative has little impact on how they’ll vote for a presidential candidate. The USA TODAY poll shows that 35 percent of Trump voters supported Amendment 4,” according to the report. 

The survey also found that nearly two-thirds of likely Florida women voters support the abortion amendment, compared to just over half of men. 

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A Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA survey shows 56 percent support for the proposed abortion amendment, still falling short of 60 percent within the survey’s ±3 percentage point margin of error. The survey was conducted with 1,055 registered Florida voters. 

“Among all voters, 23 percent of respondents are not sure how they will vote for the abortion amendment,” according to the poll report. 

Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000 — and Florida had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats in its history.

Now, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters, which is a sea change that few thought… https://t.co/MZ7m96s5TW

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) August 11, 2024

Various polling within the past few months has shown the amendment narrowly failing or passing, often with the margin of error (see here, here, here, here, and here). 

If Florida voters pass the measure with at least 60 percent support in November, the abortion amendment would undo the state’s six-week limit and basically create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle.

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The Republican Party of Florida has formally opposed the amendment, arguing that Amendment 4, along with Amendment 3 related to recreational marijuana, are too extreme for the state. Party Chairman Evan Power said:

Floridians are confident that their legislature has been passing laws that reflect the priorities of our state. Amendments 3 and 4 are unnecessary attempts by an increasingly shrinking minority who know the only way to win support for their radical agenda is to confuse and mislead the electorate.

In addition, the Republican Party of Florida supports the legislature’s desire to make school board races partisan, create a constitutional right to hunt and fish, and eliminate the taxpayer burden of public campaign financing.

The Florida Democrats are a dead carcass on the side of the road, but outside dark money groups are looking to promote their far-left ideology by attempting to confuse Florida voters. The Florida GOP stands ready to correct the record and defeat the radical left while enshrining in our Constitution more rights for our citizens.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has also warned against the radical abortion amendment.