Zumwalt: The Stars Are Not Aligned for Breakthrough on North Korea

The expression “the stars are aligned” suggests, either due to blind luck or divine intervention, timing is ideal to undertake a specific task. With President Donald Trump now scheduled to hold a second meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un this month, this time in Vietnam, the stars simply are not in alignment for Trump successfully to press Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear and missile programs. For several reasons, it is advantage Kim.

First, it must be recognized Kim is being coached by Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is interesting to note, after Kim came to power in 2011 upon the death of his father, relations between China and North Korea soured. Relations further deteriorated when Kim ordered the assassination of his half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, in 2017 in a Malaysian airport. Kim apparently feared that China was grooming his brother to replace him.

Then, suddenly, as discussions of a Trump/Kim summit took place ahead of that historic June 12, 2018, meeting in Singapore, the dictator was summoned to Beijing to meet with Xi. Their first meeting, held March 25, 2018, was quickly followed by a second on May 7, 2018. A third Kim/Xi meeting — just a week after the Trump/Kim meeting — obviously sought to map out the direction Pyongyang should take in handling their Trump “problem.” And, already this year, there has been a fourth Xi/Kim meeting, this one occurring January 8^th.

While world stability is best served by China keeping Kim on a tight leash, Beijing also looks to use the threatening nuclear bite of Pyongyang’s “Incredible Bulk” to its advantage. Both Xi and Kim are probably in agreement on this latter position.

A US ten-percent tariff on $200+ billion worth of Chinese imports last September triggered trade talks last month. But Trump’s actions, at a time of a weakened Chinese economy, have not won him any friends in Beijing. Xi has the option either to pull Kim’s leash tightly in exchange for a favorable U.S. trade deal or to slacken it, seeking to undermine Trump’s denuclearization efforts on the Korean peninsula.

Second, Trump needs to accept the fact his intelligence people are right: Kim is not likely to denuclearize. The chances of Kim voluntarily surrendering his nuclear and missile programs are about as likely as a “kinder, gentler” Maxine Waters suddenly emerging to render praise unto Trump. We will see neither happen.

Kim knows the tough guy, take-no-prisoners image he portrays to his military — one not only reinforced by the extra-territorial assassination of his half-brother but also by domestic purges he has initiated, coupled with the brutal executions both of senior government officials and even family members — is at stake should he roll over. It would mean sounding Kim’s death knell.

Third, Kim has played the Seoul card masterfully. He has suckered South Korean President Moon Jae-In into believing peace and unification is just around the corner. Moon naively takes the same approach towards Kim that President Barack Obama took towards Iran’s mullahs. A photo of the two Korean leaders, walking hand-in-hand, belies the evil lurking within Kim’s mind, to which Moon remains apparently oblivious. Moon fails to recognize he is in a one-way bromance.

Fourth, Kim also knows the U.S. and South Korea are in the midst of a cost-sharing dispute over funding the presence of American forces there. Unfortunately, Trump has announced, as in Syria, he may consider a U.S. force withdrawal. This is music to Kim’s ears.

Fifth, the fact that the Singapore Trump/Kim meeting agreed to denuclearization but failed to define it gives Kim another advantage, leaving him to decide what definition he wants. Clearly, he will want U.S. denuclearization included as well.

Sixth, Kim, relishing in his manipulation of the perception a closer Pyongyang/Seoul relationship exists, leaves little doubt where he sees it going. While the good news is he envisions a unified Korean peninsula, the bad news is he sees it done under a North Korean flag. South Koreans should worry about how their president envisions a unified Korea playing out.

Seventh, at a time Kim should fear Trump will make certain demands of him, Kim obviously is not worried. The criticism by some in the U.S. Senate of Trump’s foreign policy acumen, coupled with a bipartisan group of House lawmakers having already introduced bills making Trump’s moves in Syria and the Korean peninsula more difficult, are undermining Kim’s fear factor of Trump. Kim can negotiate what he wants, knowing Trump will have difficulty negotiating at home for what he wants. The anti-Trump fervor, on both sides of the congressional aisles, will decidedly give Kim yet another advantage.

The U.S. has made clear to Pyongyang one of its demands will be full disclosure of its weapons program. An experienced gambler would bet against that ever happening. What might be a bit more palatable to the North, although not by much, is pressing it to disclose the locations of all the remaining “invasion” tunnels it has dug under the DMZ into the South. While four of them have been discovered accidentally, it is estimated many more exist — all capable of transiting large numbers of troops and armor from north of the DMZ to the south of it. If Kim truly wants peace, he should be open to disclosing this information.

None of the above bodes well for Pyongyang’s denuclearization. At the upcoming meeting with Trump, Kim will feel emboldened to demand more than he felt he could last year. Meanwhile, he will delay implementing any substantive efforts at denuclearization as he tries to wait out the 2020 Trump re-election campaign, trying to manipulate a U.S. force withdrawal in the interim. Again with Xi’s coaching, Kim is probably banking on a Trump loss in 2020 to reap the full benefits of his delaying tactics.

While the stars definitely are not aligned for Trump, from Kim’s perspective, the alignment could not be better.

Lt. Colonel James G. Zumwalt, USMC (Ret.), is a retired Marine infantry officer who served in the Vietnam war, the U.S. invasion of Panama and the first Gulf war. He is the author of “Bare Feet, Iron Will–Stories from the Other Side of Vietnam’s Battlefields,” “Living the Juche Lie: North Korea’s Kim Dynasty” and “Doomsday: Iran–The Clock is Ticking.” He frequently writes on foreign policy and defense issues.