Ukraine Needles China for Playing Both Sides of Russian Invasion

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba implied in comments published on Tuesday that communist China is playing both sides of Russia’s invasion of the country, “in no rush” to support its ally Russia because it is waiting to see who wins.

Kuleba’s comments followed a rare rebuke of China from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this weekend, calling it “unfortunate” that China allows itself to be an “instrument” of Russia.

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China is one of Russia’s closest allies on the international stage – a fellow founding member of the anti-American BRICS coalition and often aligned to block human rights proposals at the United Nations Security Council. Beijing has not cut ties with Ukraine or enthusiastically backed Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of the country, however, enjoying its status as Ukraine’s top trade partner and claiming to be only on the side of peace. Chinese dictator Xi Jinping has snubbed several overtures from Zelensky to mediate in Ukraine’s favor, however, including a call for “Chinese businesses” to help rebuild Ukraine after the war.

Kuleba made his comments on Monday at an event to promote a book on the future of Ukraine. According to the state outlet Ukrinform, the foreign minister said “China is in no rush” to take a side in the war “for one simple reason – it is critical for them to see how the war between Russia and Ukraine ends.”

“Because if it ends with Ukraine’s victory, China’s further actions will be constrained. But if this war ends not even with Russia’s victory, but with them imposing their strategic initiative,” he explained, “that is, when they will be encroaching little by little for years, and we will be fighting back little by little despite all the assistance we receive, then, on the contrary, it will free China’s hands.”

“In China, there are now separate topics of official government research – what is a country defending against a much larger neighbor and a nuclear power capable of, and what are the partners of such a country capable of,” Kuleba continued. “And in the end, they will come to conclusions. Therefore, now, in short, they are in the position ‘We stand for peace and all good against all bad.’ But there is a much broader logic in that stance, which will ultimately determine the fate of the world.”

Kuleba did not elaborate on what he meant by Beijing conducting “research” on how well a country can defend “against a much larger neighbor.” Since Putin announced the “special operation” in Ukraine, however, international observers have debated if a Russian success in Ukraine could inspire China to invade neighboring Taiwan, a free and sovereign state that the Communist Party falsely claims as its province.

Ukrainian officials have vocally supported China’s false claims to Taiwan in an attempt to garner support against Russia.

Kuleba’s remarks on China followed Zelensky’s appearance on Sunday at the Shangri-La Dialogue this weekend, a defense summit held in Singapore. Zelensky accused Xi Jinping of aiding Russia by attempting to “disrupt” a planned “peace summit” on the war in Switzerland. Chinese officials confirmed they would not join the summit last week, its stated reason being that Russia would not attend.

“It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,” Zelensky said in Singapore.

The Ukrainian president followed his appearance at the Shangri-La Dialogue with a visit to the Philippines, currently embroiled in an escalating territorial dispute with China. The stop was the first visit by a Ukrainian president to the country. Manila will be present at the Switzerland peace summit, for which Zelensky offered his gratitude.

I arrived in the Philippines and met with President @BongBongMarcos for the first time in the history of our bilateral relations.

I am grateful to the Philippines for supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, for its clear position on Russia's aggression… pic.twitter.com/1MRxTYYfWi

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 3, 2024

China responded to Zelensky’s remarks on Monday, insisting that it was merely attempting to remain neutral in the war.

“China has repeatedly stressed that the international peace conference needs to meet the three important elements,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters, “namely, recognition from both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.”

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“As far as China is concerned, the meeting does not yet seem to meet these three elements and that is exactly why China would not be able to take part in the meeting. Let me stress that China’s position on the peace conference is fair and just,” she insisted.

Mao concluded by warning, “China sincerely hopes that a peace conference will not turn into a platform used to create bloc confrontation. Not attending it does not mean not supporting peace.”

The change in Ukraine’s public disposition towards China follows years of attempting to sway Chinese support and what appeared to be an abrupt declaration of failure for those efforts from Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun in February. At the time, the two-year anniversary of Russia’s “special operation,” Dong issued a statement alongside Russian officials that China “supported you on the Ukrainian issue despite the fact that the US and the EU continue to put pressure on the Chinese side.” The clear statement of support was a deviation from previous Chinese regime statements.

Ukraine nonetheless maintains diplomatic and economic ties with China. China is Ukraine’s top trade partner and Ukraine is a member of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure debt trap scheme that preys on poorer countries with predatory loans.