Democrat Panic: Poll Shows Maryland Senate Race Tied

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Nick Gilbertson

Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are locked in a dead heat in the U.S. Senate race in Maryland, where Democrats have held both Senate seats for nearly 40 years.

The AARP poll, which Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) jointly conducted, finds Hogan and Alsobrooks tied at 46 percent apiece in the Old Line State. Another seven percent of the 600 likely voters are undecided, while one percent will back another candidate.

Hogan, a staunch critic of former President Donald Trump and moderate Republican, is winning 83 percent of Republicans and has a strong appeal across the aisle to Democrat voters. A substantial 26 percent of Democrats polled support him over Alsobrooks, a mentee of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Considering Maryland’s deep blue status, Hogan must have strong Democrat support to secure a victory in November.

Alsobrooks does not have nearly as much appeal to Republicans as Hogan does to Democrats. She only scores nine percent of GOP voters’ support, while less than seven in ten Democrats back her.

Hogan is throttling Alsobrooks with independent voters. Of the demographic, 55 percent support the former governor, putting him 23 points above his Democrat opponent, who draws just 32 percent of independent support.

There is a double-digit divide in Marylanders’ support for each candidate across nearly all age demographics. Hogan has a ten-point advantage among voters 18-34 at 50 percent to 40 percent. However, those in the following age range, 35-49, break for Alsobrooks, 53 percent to 40 percent.

Those between 50 and 64 prefer Hogan by a 13-point margin, 52 percent to 39 percent, but Alsobrooks is winning those 65 years old and older by eight points.

Hogan was a late entry in the Republican primary field, announcing his candidacy just hours before the filing deadline in February. His presence in the race and the strength he is demonstrating pose trouble for Democrats, as it broadens the universe of battleground Senate states the party has to defend.

Democrats will have to invest more resources to support Alsobrooks than what was likely initially thought before Hogan’s entry, which benefits Republicans in battleground Senate states across the board, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Arizona, to name a few.

A Republican has notably not represented Maryland in the U.S. Senate since 1987 when Sen. Charles M. Mathias Jr. left office.

The poll, which the Baltimore Banner appears to have first reported, was conducted from August 14-20, 2024. The representative sample of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of ± four percentage points.

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