Poll: GOP’s Tim Sheehy Opens Up 7-Point Lead over Democrat Tester in Montana

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump listens as Montana Senate ca
AP Photo/Rick Bowmer
Nick Gilbertson

Trump-backed Montana Senate nominee Tim Sheehy (R) has opened up a seven-point lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), according to a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for the Montana Republican Party.

The poll, published Sunday, finds that 51 percent of the 500 likely voters sampled support Sheehy. This includes 43 percent who “definitely” will vote for Sheehy, 7 percent who “probably” will, and 1 percent who lean his way. Inside Elections deputy editor Jacob Rubashkin noted in a post on X that the Montana GOP sponsored the poll, which shows a “pretty bleak result for Jon Tester”:

Tester sits seven points back with 44 percent of the response, including 40 percent who will “definitely” support him, 3 percent who probably will, and 1 percent who lean toward doing so.

Libertarian Sid Daoud garners two percent of the response, while the Green Party’s Michael Downey takes one percent.

Sheehy has enjoyed a seven-point swing in just two months. A June POS/Montana GOP poll showed Tester and Sheehy locked at 46 percent apiece. Since then, Sheehy has gained five points of support, while Tester has lost two percent of backing.

Looking deeper, the surge for Sheehy comes as the top issues for Montanans heading into the home stretch of the election are illegal immigration, inflation, and the cost of living.

Voters were asked to choose the two most pressing issues in this election. Of the respondents, 39 percent selected illegal immigration as their first or second most important issue, while 34 percent said inflation and the cost of living were among their top issues.

The third most prevalent answer was jobs and the economy at 31 percent, followed by abortion at 28 percent.

The trend in Montana, a firmly red state, spells significant trouble for Tester and Democrats’ efforts at large to hold on to a one-seat Senate majority.

Republicans are already poised to take Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) seat in West Virginia. The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters gives Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) a 99 percent chance to do so. Manchin was notably a Democrat before becoming an independent in May.

In theory, that would put Republicans at 50 seats if GOP incumbents hold on to all of their seats, a strong possibility, considering Democrats’ best flip opportunities are long shots in red Texas and Florida against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL). A Sheehy win in Montana on top of all this would give Republicans a one-seat majority. The GOP also has a number of other pickup opportunities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, to name a few.

The poll was conducted from August 18 to 20 and has a margin of error of ± 4.38 percentage points.

RELATED — GOP Senate Candidate Tim Sheehy on How to Beat Jon Tester in Montana

M. Perdie, J. Knudsen / Breitbart News

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