Poll: Trump Dominating Harris with White Working Class Voters Nationally

download date August 15, 2024
AP Photo
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump is dominating Vice President Kamala Harris among white working class voters, as they find themselves neck and neck in the presidential race, according to a national Pew Research/SSRS poll.

The poll, conducted August 5-11 with a massive sample size of more than 7,500 registered voters, finds that 45 percent of respondents support or lean toward Trump, while 46 percent back Harris or lean her way. Independent Robert F Kennedy Jr. follows in third place with seven percent. The one-percent gap between Trump and Haarris falls within the ±1.4 percent margin of error.

For reference, in a Pew Research poll conducted in April, before Biden’s disastrous debate performance in late June, found he was in a tight race with Trump rationally. Trump led by one point in that poll (49 percent to 48 percent), though that sample did not include Kennedy.

Trends across education demographics in the latest poll also offer a telling glimpse into the race. Trump has the advantage among those who received some college or less, while Harris has the lead among those with a college degree.

Among voters who went to college but did not attain a degree, Trump leads 46 percent to 44 percent, while he holds an even larger 15-point among those with a high school degree or less education. He registers at 53 percent with these voters to Harris’s 38 percent.

Drilling deeper, Trump is crushing Harris with white working-class voters who received “some college” or less.

He earns 60 percent of the support from this bloc of voters, while 33 percent support Harris. This is significant, considering a New York Times/Siena College poll found Trump leading Harris by 14 points among non-college-educated white voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, down from the 25-point lead he had with them over Biden in the polling outfit’s May poll.

CNN’s Harry Enton zoned in on the change from May to August in the Times/Siena College poll Tuesday while appearing on Erin Burnett Out Front.

Referring to her 14-point deficit in Rust Belt, Enton said those “are the types of numbers that Kamala Harris needs to put up in order to win.”

Though it is a national poll, Pew Research’s results break heavily with the Times/Siena College poll’s results of non-college-educated whites in these critical working-class Rust Belt states. The 27-point margin he leads Harris by nationally in the Pew Research poll is on par with Biden’s 25-point lead in these Rust Belt states in May’s Times/Siena poll.

Trump is winning 42 percent of women voters in the latest poll, placing him slightly behind Harris’s 49 percent. Kennedy Jr. follows with six percent of the women response.

Conversely, Trump is winning men over Harris at a rate of 49 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of men support or lean towards Kennedy.

In looking at age demographics, Harris has an apparent advantage with younger voters, though Trump leads among older demographics. With voters aged 18-29, Harris leads 57 percent to 29 percent. Yet, they are neck and neck in the 30-49 demographic, with Harris at 45 percent and Trump drawing 43 percent.

With voters between 50-65, Trump leads Harris 49 percent to 44 percent. He also holds a six-point advantage with voters 65 and older (51 percent to 45 percent).

The Pew Research poll sampled 7,569 registered voters from August 5-11.

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